Mathematical models and simulations are one of the primary tools scientists use to understand the world around us. Such models are invariably too simple to account for the complexity of reality, but if they capture some essential features of the system being studied, they can help to deepen our appreciation for causes and correlations involved in a system over time. Nuclear proliferation is a geopolitical problem whose future is often modeled and simulated by governments, militaries, academics, and independent think-tanks.
In this activity, you will engage in a simulation of the nuclear proliferation situation in the world today. You and your peers will form five groups, each representing one nuclear weapons state: China, India, Pakistan, Russia, and the United States (U.S.). You will engage in a series of negotiation rounds, each representing a 4-year period.
Throughout the simulation, two numbers will be tracked:
Nuclear Weapon (NW) Count: This number represents the number of NWs that a country has. In the simulation, countries can choose to increase, decrease, or leave unchanged their NW stockpiles.
Geopolitical Power Ranking (GPR): The value of a country’s GPR reflects whether proliferation decisions are working in its favor. The GPR for each country will either stay the same or increase over the course of the simulation – the lower a country’s GPR is, relative to other countries, the more global decisions have been conforming to that country’s interests, and the more geopolitical power the country is perceived to have. You will receive a separate sheet that outlines your country’s particular geopolitical goals.
The NW Count and GPR values at the start of the simulation are shown below. NW Count values are not proportional to the size of actual nuclear weapon stockpiles.
Here is how a round of the simulation will proceed:
1. NW Count Decision Stage:
2. Nuclear Terrorism Attack Stage:
Total NW Count: | 0 | 1-5 | 6-11 | 12-18 | 19-27 | >=28 |
Attack Probability: | 0 | 1/32 | 1/16 | 1/8 | 1/4 | 1/2 |
3. Sanctioning Stage:
This process will repeat for around 4-5 rounds.
You will receive your country-specific GPR guidelines and a policy-brief with strategic considerations on a separate sheet of paper. Good Luck!
**This simulation was adapted and redesigned from an earlier version developed by Prof. Paul Cadden-Zimansky (of Bard College) for the Frontiers of Science course at Columbia University.**